Dr. Negi at Oxford conference on 'Effective Multilateralisms'

Dr Archna Negi from CIPOD attended an International Conference on “Effective Multilateralisms: Cross-Regional Perspectives” at St Anne’s College, University of Oxford from 17-19 December 2009. The conference was organized by the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford.



Dr. Negi's brief comments:

The Conference focused on the management of global security relations in the 21st century in light of the growing gap between the ‘normative ambitions’ of the international society and the ‘lack of means to deliver them’. Discussions centered on possible forms of global governance that can effectively achieve desired global action outcomes and a ‘global order based on the principle of effective multilateralism’. Nuclear non-proliferation and climate change were the two themes identified for discussion, being areas of severe potential consequences in the event of a collective action failure. Principles, problems and prospects relating to these issue areas were discussed from a cross-regional perspective.

Dr Negi’s presentation was titled “Effective Multilateralism, Climate Change and Trade: Prospects for Conflict and Cooperation between the Trade and Environmental Governance Systems”. Although there is an established prima facie case for the need for ‘effective multilateralism’ in the realm of climate change as well as trade, no two regimes are more visibly blighted with the curse of ‘ineffective multilateralism’ than those relating to climate change and trade. The presentation dealt individually with each of these governance systems and attempted to identify possible explanations for the ‘deadlocked multilateralism’ that currently characterizes both regimes. It focused specifically on potential areas of conflict and cooperation between the trade and climate change regimes. Based on specific examples, some generalizations relating both to effective multilateralism as well as coherence across the two regimes were sought to be identified.


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Rajagopalan at the NIDS Conference on Major Powers' Nuclear Policies

Cross-posted from Rajesh Rajagopalan blog, The Real World.


I attended a conference on "Major Powers' Nuclear Policies and International Order in the 21st Century", organized by the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS), Tokyo, on November 18, 2009.


It was an enjoyable and very informative couple of days. The conference included two excellent key note presentation. Morton Halperin ("The Role of Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century") had a somewhat optimistic presentation about where we are headed while Ambassador Yukio Satoh ("Nuclear Disarmament and Japan's Security"), gave a blunt lecture about the troubles facing Japan, especially the consequences of radical nuclear arms control/disarmament on extended deterrence, though his audience seemed to be the new government in Tokyo much more than the outside world. We had presentations about the nuclear policies of each of the N-5, plus India: Elaine Bunn (who, I realised belatedly, has been on all Nuclear Posture Reviews, including the current one!) on the U.S. , Yuri Fedorov on Russia, Xia Liping on China, John Simpson on Britain and Bruno Tertrais on France (and me on India).

I could not get over the sense that Japan is much more worried about the direction of US policy and the general international trends than we realise. In addition to Ambassador Satoh's keynote address, we also had discussions with a couple of senior bureaucrats from MOFA and MOD, and they more or less echoed Amb. Sato's tone too. Maybe it is that I have only passing familiarity with Japan; moreover, alliance angst among American allies is hardly news. Am I over-reading this? Maybe, but it is also possible that others are taking Japan a bit too much for granted too.
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Happymon Jacob to be Visiting Fellow at Hokkaido University

Happymon Jacob will be Visiting Fellow at Hokkaido University from December 10. He explains:

I will be on leave from JNU from 10 December to 28 March and will be in residence at the Slavic Research Center of the Hokkaido University, Japan as a Visiting Fellow. As a Visiting Fellow I will conduct research on: "India’s Search for Great Power Status: Structural Incentives and Domestic Constraints". I will be part of a project on “Comparative Research on Major Regional Powers in Eurasia” funded by the by the Japanese Ministry of Education and Science.




The project that I will be part of will conduct a comprehensive and systematic comparison of major regional powers in Eurasia, including Russia, China and India, and analyze the sustainability of these countries as regional powers. In addition, the comparative analysis will take into account the historical background of these powers as Empires. The objective of the research project is to explore and identify pressing issues in contemporary Eurasia and beyond, such as security, ethnic conflict, religious confrontations, environmental problems and poverty, by paying special attention to the role of these regional powers in the world order.



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Happymon Jacob at Griffith University Conference on Pakistan

Happymon Jacob recenty participated in an international conference on Pakistan's chronic instability, organized by the Griffith Asia Institute of the Griffith University, in Brisbane, Australia, 25-26 November, 2009.

Happymon presented a paper on the India-Pakistan peace process (such as it is).
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Prof. Swaran Singh on Sino-Indian relations

Prof. Swaran Singh was recently interviewed by the Global Times on Sino Indian relations.

Regarding the recent troubles on the border, Prof. Singh suggested that "Time will be the great healer."

Read the full interview here.
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Prof. Mattoo on liberating India from Pakistan

Yet another essay by Prof. Mattoo on the India-Pakistan-Kashmir tangle in the Financial Express. He has provided, I think, a better explanation and argument for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's recent initiative towards Pakistan than the government's spinmeisters have.

Prof. Mattoo suggests that India should work towards constructing Jinnah's model of Pakistan: Muslim, moderate and modern. He suggests an Indian policy based on deterrence of asymmetric attacks, strengthening forces in Pakistan who have a stake in better India-Pakistan relations and weakening those who are opposed.

Read his full essay here.
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Prof. Mattoo: Four Ds for a new Kashmir

Prof. Amitabh Mattoo has a new essay on the India-Pakistan-Kashmir tangle in the Times of India.

Prof. Mattoo argues that "For all Kashmir's apparently complex problems, there are in reality only four principal challenges that need to be addressed": dialogue, devolution/de-centralisation, demilitarisation and development.

Read his full essay here.
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Prof. Swaran Singh on the nuclear disconnect

Prof. Swaran Singh has written an essay on the need for India, particularly the Indian strategic community, to consider a different nuclear vision.


Prof. Singh argues that 'as India moves from victimhood to a stakeholder profile in the nuclear sweepstakes, several fundamentals need to change as well', most importantly, the lack of coordination between decision-makers and the strategic community.

Read his essay here.
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Prof. Mattoo attends Pugwash CTBT consultation

Professor Amitabh Mattoo recently attended the Pugwash consultation on the status of the CTBT and prospects for its entry into force in New York.

Clearly, there is a lot of focus on CTBT, given President Obama's Prague speech on nuclear disarmament and the expectation that he would make another attempt at getting the US Senate to ratify the CTBT. The meeting, organized by Pugwash, was held on October 12, under the Chatham House Rule. Invitees were primarily from th Annexe-2 countries. The programme included a presentation by Ambassador Sergio Duarte, UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs and remarks from Ambassador Tibor Toth, Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission of the CTBTO.
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Rajagopalan attends the Regional Powers Conference at Sciences Po, Paris

Cross-posted from Rajesh Rajagopalan's The Real World


I recently attended the third conference of the Regional Powers Network (RPN) project, organized by the Sciences Po, Paris (8-9 October 2009).

The RPN is a multi-year project that aims to examine, both theoretically and substantively, the role of various regional powers in the global system. The project brings together the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA) of the University of Hamburg, the University of Oxford, and Sciences Po, Paris. The first conference, titled "Ideas, Interests, Resources and Strategies of Regional Powers – Analytical Concepts in Comparative Perspective" was held in Hamburg last September. Professors Alka Acharya and Ummu Salma Bava from SIS attended that conference. The second conference, Regional Powers and Global Orders, was held in Rio de Janeiro was held in April this year. The one I attended was titled "Regional Powers and Regional Order" and I presented a paper on Pakistan as a regional power and a global problem. I stuck to to the first part: Pakistan as a regional power. I argued that unlike much of the literature on regional powers, which saw regions and regional powers as subjects and victims of global powers and processes, regional powers (indeed, smaller powers in general) are quite adept at pursuing their regional agenda by using and shaping global power interests. The paper is still in draft form, though . . .
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Jacob says India should start talking to Pakistan, "Now".

Happymon Jacob has written a new essay in Greater Kashmir arguing that India should start talking to Pakistan, now.

Jacob argues that India has been overusing coercive diplomacy and that New Delhi has reaped all the possible benefits it can out of refusing to talk to Pakistan.

Read his full essay in the link above or here.


Edited 15/10/2009 late evening: Hmm . . . the Greater Kashmir website seems rather uncooperative. The link to the essay keeps going to the wrong op ed section, so please read the essay directly from Happy's blog archive here.
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Mattoo and Jacob to attend India-Pakistan CBM meet

Professor Amitabh Mattoo and Happymon Jacob would be participating in an India-Pakistan Track-Two Dialogue organized by the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). The Dialogue is scheduled on 2-3 October 2009 in Bangkok, Thailand.

The current Dialogue is the second in a series of confidence building dialogues being organized to bring together key opinion makers (including former senior officials) from India and Pakistan to discuss critical issues impacting the bilateral relationship including the issue of Kashmir and terrorism along with other important confidence building measures. Participants include from India G. Parthasarathy, Vikram Sood, A.S. Dulat, Admiral Raja Menon, Siddharth Varadarajan, Prof. Riyaz Punjabi, P.R. Chari, and AVM Kapil Kak, and from Pakistan, Aziz Khan, Riaz Khokhar, Arif Kamal, Najimuddin Sheikh, Talat Hussain, Gen. Aziz Khan and Gen. Asad Durrani.
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Prof. Mattoo reviews Gretchen Peters' Seeds of Terror

Prof. Amitabh Mattoo has published an excellent review in the India Today of the new book by Gretchen Peters, an ABC News reporter, about the link between drug trafficking and terrorists in Afghanistan.


The review, which is generally favourable, can be found here. As always comments are welcome, on either the review or the book.


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Rajesh Rajagopalan at the SAIIA 75th Anniversary Conference

Cross-posted from The Real World.


I attended the South African Institute of International Affairs' 75th Anniversary conference, 'Africa in a New World: Geopolitics, interdependence and leverage', 17-18 September in Johannesburg and made a presentation on 'Moving the Center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Pacific'.

I did not have a written paper but my notes are posted below.

Introduction
Is the center of gravity of global politics moving from Atlantic to the Pacific? Is there also a power transition away from the US? I suppose the answer is yes to both, though the first shift is much more prominent and relevant than the second.

Shifting from Atlantic to Pacific
Since US both an Atlantic and a Pacific power, the shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific does not hurt the US. Can the shift to Pacific or Asia-Pacific lead to a different type of international politics, different from a European style of international politics? In other words, would Asia’s rise lead to a new (more harmonious?) international political culture or would Asia’s future be Europe’s past? But little sign of any dramatic change in Asian int’l politics. Insecurity and the consequences of insecurity no different in Asia. US presence/alliances keeps lid on more extreme insecurities

Nature of current international order
Is the curret system unipolar, multipolar or what? Unipolar-in purely material terms, because difference in wealth and power between dominant power and everybody else is greater than at anytime since end of the Roman Empire. But does this disparity lead to greater American control?

Not necessarily; being a GP ain’t what it used to be because:
• Ideology of nationalism
• Norms (legitimacy) of resistance
• Democratisation of firepower makes conquest difficult
• Nuke allow even small/weak states (NKorea) to counter US

Nevertheless, US capacity to control still immense. Example: US-Ind nuke deal; US changed global rules for just one country, demonstrates what power can do. So though US can’t get its way always, US dominance should not be underestimated

Moving towards multipolarity?
Obviously, US declining in relative terms since 1945, but not against the same power:
1940-1960s vis-à-vis Europe
• 1960-80s vis-à-vis Japan/southeast Asia
• 1980s-current vis-à-vis China, India
• This suggests that current challengers might not displace US

History of rise/fall of GPs illustrate that these are mostly internally determined; so difficult to predict; three lessons, however:
• GPs/hegemonies/empires last long, maybe hundreds of years
• Have not usually been balanced by other power (Roman, Chinese, Mughal etc, not balanced by others)
• GPs have usually declined for domestic/economic reasons, not because of other GPs
So US decline inevitable, but when, how impossible to predict. Assumption that US would quickly decline not valid.

What if multipolarity happens? Speculations about the future:
• Multipolarity may lead to greater insecurity and war
• Major players could become regional hegemons, dominating neighborhoods
Could lead to more insecurity
• Nevertheless, nukes likely to prevent direct combat between nuke powers, as in bipolarity
• But, as in bipolarity, it could lead to proxy wars, support for insurgents etc, because nuke war no longer possible
• Global norms/institutions could potentially suffer with no one (GP) to care for them.

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Professors Mattoo and Swaran Singh at University of Hull

Professors Amitabh Mattoo and Swaran Singh (diplomacy and Disarmament Division, CIPOD) will be attending a conference titled After the First Decade: The Politics of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia being organized by the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Hull, UK (28-29 August).

Prof. Mattoo will be talking about India's nuclear arms control and disarmament policy while Prof. Singh will talk about India's nuclear doctrine. A full copy of the programme can be found here.
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Amitabh Mattoo on India's Pakistan policy

Prof. Amitabh Mattoo recently published an essay in the Financial Express on Indian policy towards Pakistan.

He argues that different policy proponents (he calls them the subedars, the the saudagars and the sufis) need to come together to fashion a policy that would simultaneously maintain deterrence, seek engagement and be open to radical change within Pakistan whenever possible. The full essay can be found here. Comments and discussion welcome . . .
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Dr. Siddharth Mallavarappu to lecture on 'Human Rights and Global Governance'

On August 12th, at the invitation of the German Development Institute, Bonn, Dr. Mallavarapu will be addressing young professionals participating in a Global Governance School . . .

The participants are drawn primarily from the newly emerging economies of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Dr. Maalavarapu's presentation shall focus on various sources of skepticism articulated by the Global South with regard to mainstream international human rights thinking. While engaging the idea of human rights, the presentation shall also audit key human rights actors, institutions and prevalent practices. The objective of the presentation is to help stimulate further reflection about some of the limits of the contemporary rights discourse.
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