Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Mattoo and Jacob to attend India-Pakistan CBM meet


Professor Amitabh Mattoo and Happymon Jacob would be participating in an India-Pakistan Track-Two Dialogue organized by the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). The Dialogue is scheduled on 2-3 October 2009 in Bangkok, Thailand.

The current Dialogue is the second in a series of confidence building dialogues being organized to bring together key opinion makers (including former senior officials) from India and Pakistan to discuss critical issues impacting the bilateral relationship including the issue of Kashmir and terrorism along with other important confidence building measures. Participants include from India G. Parthasarathy, Vikram Sood, A.S. Dulat, Admiral Raja Menon, Siddharth Varadarajan, Prof. Riyaz Punjabi, P.R. Chari, and AVM Kapil Kak, and from Pakistan, Aziz Khan, Riaz Khokhar, Arif Kamal, Najimuddin Sheikh, Talat Hussain, Gen. Aziz Khan and Gen. Asad Durrani.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Happymon Jacob on the Kashmir peace process


Happymon Jacob has written an essay about the peace process in Kashmir in the Srinagar-based Greater Kashmir. He is not particularly hopeful . . .

As he puts it, "perhaps it is not an ideal season that makes peace, but rather peace that makes the season ideal." Read the full essay here.
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Sunday, September 27, 2009

More needless hand-wringing over the NPT/US-India nuclear deal

Cross-posted from The Real World.


Are'nt we done with this yet??

Apparently not. The generic UNSC resolution 1887 (click here if the previous link does not open) about nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation (press statement including discussions here) has set-off yet more paranoid worrying in New Delhi that India will be targeted. Only the Indian Express seems to have taken a more sober line.

As if it needed reiteration, the MEA, MoS Tharoor and even PM Manmohan Singh had to step-up to state India's position on the NPT for the umpteenth time and reassure the TV pundits that the UNSC resolution was not directed at India and that the US was not backing out on the nuclear deal (further reiterated by Clinton).

That the UNSC resolution would get tied up with the nuclear deal is even more surprising. To reiterate what I have said before, the US-India nuclear deal is really a deal between India and the international community, not just the US. And the benefits are already visible: here, here, here, here, here, here and here, with more to come. Even if the US were to balk at this stage, it matters little because the gate is already open for nuclear commerce with the rest of the world.

A lot of recent debate in the US about the paranoid style of American politics; it may be time consider seriously hypotheses about the paranoid style of Indian politics . . .
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Saturday, September 26, 2009

Prof. Mattoo reviews Gretchen Peters' Seeds of Terror


Prof. Amitabh Mattoo has published an excellent review in the India Today of the new book by Gretchen Peters, an ABC News reporter, about the link between drug trafficking and terrorists in Afghanistan.


The review, which is generally favourable, can be found here. As always comments are welcome, on either the review or the book.


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Friday, September 25, 2009

Rajesh Rajagopalan at the SAIIA 75th Anniversary Conference

Cross-posted from The Real World.


I attended the South African Institute of International Affairs' 75th Anniversary conference, 'Africa in a New World: Geopolitics, interdependence and leverage', 17-18 September in Johannesburg and made a presentation on 'Moving the Center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Pacific'.

I did not have a written paper but my notes are posted below.

Introduction
Is the center of gravity of global politics moving from Atlantic to the Pacific? Is there also a power transition away from the US? I suppose the answer is yes to both, though the first shift is much more prominent and relevant than the second.

Shifting from Atlantic to Pacific
Since US both an Atlantic and a Pacific power, the shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific does not hurt the US. Can the shift to Pacific or Asia-Pacific lead to a different type of international politics, different from a European style of international politics? In other words, would Asia’s rise lead to a new (more harmonious?) international political culture or would Asia’s future be Europe’s past? But little sign of any dramatic change in Asian int’l politics. Insecurity and the consequences of insecurity no different in Asia. US presence/alliances keeps lid on more extreme insecurities

Nature of current international order
Is the curret system unipolar, multipolar or what? Unipolar-in purely material terms, because difference in wealth and power between dominant power and everybody else is greater than at anytime since end of the Roman Empire. But does this disparity lead to greater American control?

Not necessarily; being a GP ain’t what it used to be because:
• Ideology of nationalism
• Norms (legitimacy) of resistance
• Democratisation of firepower makes conquest difficult
• Nuke allow even small/weak states (NKorea) to counter US

Nevertheless, US capacity to control still immense. Example: US-Ind nuke deal; US changed global rules for just one country, demonstrates what power can do. So though US can’t get its way always, US dominance should not be underestimated

Moving towards multipolarity?

Obviously, US declining in relative terms since 1945, but not against the same power:
1940-1960s vis-à-vis Europe
• 1960-80s vis-à-vis Japan/southeast Asia
• 1980s-current vis-à-vis China, India
• This suggests that current challengers might not displace US

History of rise/fall of GPs illustrate that these are mostly internally determined; so difficult to predict; three lessons, however:
• GPs/hegemonies/empires last long, maybe hundreds of years
• Have not usually been balanced by other power (Roman, Chinese, Mughal etc, not balanced by others)
• GPs have usually declined for domestic/economic reasons, not because of other GPs
So US decline inevitable, but when, how impossible to predict. Assumption that US would quickly decline not valid.

What if multipolarity happens? Speculations about the future:
• Multipolarity may lead to greater insecurity and war
• Major players could become regional hegemons, dominating neighborhoods
Could lead to more insecurity
• Nevertheless, nukes likely to prevent direct combat between nuke powers, as in bipolarity
• But, as in bipolarity, it could lead to proxy wars, support for insurgents etc, because nuke war no longer possible
• Global norms/institutions could potentially suffer with no one (GP) to care for them.

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Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Social science prose



(cross-posted from The Real World)

The Chronicle of Higher Education has a nice essay about academic prose, written by Gail Hornstein, professor of psychology at Mount Holyoke College, Massachusetts, US.

Though she writes from her experience in a different discipline, much of what she writes should be familiar to students of political science and international relations. Clarity and simplicity should have greater value in the social sciences than it has today. I do feel that IR is (very) slightly better than most other social sciences, primarily because of its policy orientation. That forces IR folks (especially those on the policy end of the spectrum; the theorists, I think, are no better than the other social scientists) to both stay rooted in worldly concrens and write in a way that makes them somewhat more readable. Almost two decades back, the editors of International Security also pleaded for greater clarity in a guide to contributors, despite the fact that IS is among the more readable IR journals. Clearly, we are all still struggling.
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Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Prof. Swaran Singh on Sino-Indian relations


Prof. Swaran Singh recently published an OpEd essay in China Daily on Sino-Indian relations.

He sees great promise for partnership between the two countries, despite some recent troubles on the border, mainly because of their common position on climate change.

Read his full essay here.
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Prof. Amitabh Mattoo on the Pokhran-2 controversy


Prof. Mattoo has written an OpEd essay with Dr. Rajiv Nayan of IDSA about the recent Pokhran-2 controversy.

They argue that the recent controversy stems from an over-emphasis on the H-bomb, and 'rivalry between institutions and individuals', and call for an independent oversight authority to prevent these controversies in the future.
Read the full essay in The Telegraph here.
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Prof. Swaran Singh on the Pokhran-2 controversy


Prof. Swaran Singh wrote an OpEd piece on the recent controversy over the Pokhran-2 H-bomb test . . .

Prof. Singh argues that given the controversy, India should keep its nuclear testing option open. Read his full essay in the Hindustan Tmes here.
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More from Prof. Mattoo on India's Pakistan Policy


Prof. Amitabh Mattoo has a new OpEd essay on India's Pakistan policy in the Hindu.

Prof. Mattoo argues that there are multiple Pakistans and India needs to recognize that reality. In addition, he points out that the recent Pew survey suggests that most ordinary Pakistanis want good relations with India.

Read the full essay here . . .
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Sunday, August 30, 2009

Rajesh Rajagopalan on the Pokhran-2 test controversy


Rajesh Rajagopalan has posted a brief comment on his blog about the controversy over the yield of the Pokhran-2 nuclear tests . . .

He argues that the controversy does not particularly affect India's nuclear deterrence capability.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Updated with seminar report: Amandeep Gill to talk about India's arms control policy


Amandeep Gill of the Disarmament and International Security Affairs (DISA) division of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) will speak at the CIPOD Wednesday seminar on 'India and the New Arms Control Agenda' on August 19, 2009.

Keep reading for a report on his presentation . . .

Gill is Director at DISA. He has extensive experience in arms control and disarmament issues, having dealt with it for almost ten years of his service in the MEA. He was also a Visiting Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University. He wrote recently in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that India was unlikely to sign the CTBT even if the US Senate ratifies the treaty.

Updated 24/08/09: Here's a brief summary of Gill's presentation:

Amandeep Gill presented his view of India’s position on the new arms control agenda at the CIPOD Wednesday seminar on August 19. He was speaking in his personal capacity.

He stated that India’s arms control positions were organic and alive, based both on principles and pragmatism. These positions have an inherent link with national security, as it became clear during the CTBT debate. India will support global, verifiable and non-discriminatory disarmament measures but the Indian Government has a responsibility to its citizens with regard to their security in a nuclearised world. Apart from this link with national security, the debate in India regarding our arms control positions was also now more open. He felt that there was a broad consensus that the correct way to approach the process of disarmament is through delegitimizing nuclear weapons through measures such as de-alerting.

There is also a global context: nuclear postures are changing the world over. Both the US and China are enhancing their nuclear triad, with new delivery capabilities as well as missile defence and asymmetric capabilities. India is also developing a triad capability but on a much more modest scale. There are a number of causes for concern in these global developments including the possibility of a nuclearised Korean peninsula and concern over Iran’s nuclear technology development. Regarding the non-proliferation regime, Gill said that the Bush administration, though unilateralist, showed pragmatism in going beyond the existing regimes. While current problems dictate a need to modify and go beyond existing regimes, there is resistance to this.

Regarding India’s position on specific issues, Gill reiterated the Indian position that the NPT was a flawed treaty, flaws which were reinforced in 1995 when the treaty was extended indefinitely. But it was unrealistic for India to expect that the treaty would be modified to let India in as a nuclear weapon state, just as it was unrealistic to expect that India will join the treaty as a non-nuclear weapon state. While the NPT itself can stay, we also need to go beyond it to prevent proliferation. On CTBT and testing, Indian restraint has been unparalleled, but the CTBT needs to be a logical and necessary step on the path towards nuclear disarmament. In India many still see it as part of the old non-proliferation regime which discriminated against India. Ultimately, it is a matter of perception: if others see India as a partner rather than as a target, Indian views of the CTBT will also change.

On the FMCT, India can engage confidently with the rest of the world. Its position on fundamentals has not changed since 1993: it wants a multilateral, non-discriminatory and verifiable treaty that meets its national security concerns. On Iran, he said that Iran has made commitments that it needs to live up to and the appropriate body to deal with the issue is the IAEA.

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Thursday, August 13, 2009

Prof. Amitabh Mattoo to attend roundtable at Kings College, London


Prof. Amtabh Mattoo will be attending a roundtable discussion at Kings College, London (2-3 September, 2009). . .

The roundtable will discuss South Asian issues and include some leading scholars and commentators on South Asia, including Daniel Markey, Siddharth Varadarajan, Anatol Lieven, Kanwal Sibal, Vikram Sood, Stephen Cohen, Hilary Seynnott, Ashley Tellis, and Gurmeet Kanwal.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Professors Mattoo and Swaran Singh at University of Hull

Professors Amitabh Mattoo and Swaran Singh (diplomacy and Disarmament Division, CIPOD) will be attending a conference titled After the First Decade: The Politics of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia being organized by the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Hull, UK (28-29 August).

Prof. Mattoo will be talking about India's nuclear arms control and disarmament policy while Prof. Singh will talk about India's nuclear doctrine. A full copy of the programme can be found here.
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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Amitabh Mattoo on India's Pakistan policy


Prof. Amitabh Mattoo recently published an essay in the Financial Express on Indian policy towards Pakistan.

He argues that different policy proponents (he calls them the subedars, the the saudagars and the sufis) need to come together to fashion a policy that would simultaneously maintain deterrence, seek engagement and be open to radical change within Pakistan whenever possible. The full essay can be found here. Comments and discussion welcome . . .
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Friday, August 7, 2009

Himadeep Muppidi to talk at CIPOD on 'The Colonial Signs of International Relations'


Himadeep Muppidi, Associate Professor of Political Science at Vassar College, will give a lecture at CIPOD on Wednesday, 12 August, at 11:00 am.

Prof. Muppidi completed his MA and MPhil at SIS, and PhD at the University of Minnesota. His book, The Politics of the Global, was based on his PhD and published by the University of Minnesota Press in 2004. His talk will be based on his forthcoming book.
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Dr. Siddharth Mallavarappu to lecture on 'Human Rights and Global Governance'


On August 12th, at the invitation of the German Development Institute, Bonn, Dr. Mallavarapu will be addressing young professionals participating in a Global Governance School . . .

The participants are drawn primarily from the newly emerging economies of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Dr. Maalavarapu's presentation shall focus on various sources of skepticism articulated by the Global South with regard to mainstream international human rights thinking. While engaging the idea of human rights, the presentation shall also audit key human rights actors, institutions and prevalent practices. The objective of the presentation is to help stimulate further reflection about some of the limits of the contemporary rights discourse.
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Wednesday, August 5, 2009

INS-TERI National Workshop


The Indian Nuclear Society (INS) and The Energy Resource Institute (TERI) are organizing a joint conference on “Nuclear energy development in India: Addressing climate change, public perception and large scale deployment”. Details about the conference can be found here.


Thanks to Dr. Negi, who forwarded the details.
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Sunday, August 2, 2009

Lawrence Prabhakar to lecture on nuclear disarmament


Lawrence Prabhakar, Associate Professor at theDepartment of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, will lecture on 'Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Disarmament: New Vistas in the 21st Century'. The lecture will be held in Room 203, SIS Building, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, on 4th August, 2009 (Tuesday), at 3:00 pm.
Dr. Prabhakar has written and lectured extensively on Indian security issues.
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Scott Sagan to lecture on 'No First Use'


Scott Sagan will be delivering a lecture on 'The Case for No First Use' based on his recent essay of the same title in Survival. The lecture will be held in Room 203, SIS Building, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, at 3:00 pm on 5 August 2009 (Wednesday). No invitations are required to attend.
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New Cipod blog

This is the new CIPOD Blog. The blog was set up on August 3, 2009. It will take a while for us to get fully up to speed on this blog. But we do hope that you will keep visiting us and help promote a healthy dialogue about international politics, especially but not exclusively, from an academic perspective.
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